Thursday, March 25, 2010

The Numbers on Nourishment

The following is a fairly simple financial analysis of the revenue stream protected by beach nourishment. It takes into account the direct revenues from homes east of the beach road in Nags Head in the ten mile project area. We consider the property tax paid to Nags Head and Dare County, and the occcupancy tax and sales tax generated by these homes. It looks at these sources of revenue over a five year period.

There is one assumption - that 85% of the total occupancy and sales tax is generated east of the Beach Road.

There are no multipliers added for the money that these guests spend on vacation. Any additional value to our local economy just makes the benefit greater.

The Nags Head Finance officer supplied the data from public records on property, sales and occupancy tax collections.
































































Ad valorem taxes
Oceanside properties: (includes south nags head west of 1243)
Town0.1475 1,316,479,007 1,941,806.54
County 0.26 1,316,479,007 3,422,845.42
5)
5,364,651.95combined annually
26,823,259.77 over five years to county and town
Property rentals
Town wide annually based on FY08/09
85,043,247.000.05 occupancy 4,252,162.35
0.0775 sales tax 6,590,851.64
10,843,013.99 combined annually
54,215,069.96 over five years to state, county, and towns
46,082,809.47 estimated oceanside percentage - 85%


$72,906,069 Five year total for property taxes, occupancy taxes generated, and sales tax generated

Does not include dollars spent on restaurants, retail, gas, entertainment while here or sales taxes generated on same.


Click here for a pdf version

5 comments:

  1. Bob— I have been anticipating the “endgame” argument, and it is your most powerful point and at the end of the day this question is the most important to us all and gives us the passion and reason to have this debate. Sorry for the lengthy response, but I trust that you will read and post this in its entirety and hopefully we can work together in the coming years on the solutions that follow.

    How to deal with this question is the essence of the current beach nourishment dialog in which we are both passionately involved: the anti-nourishments folks like me feel that erosion is a force that we cannot stop…lets accept reality, not waste resources fighting the inevitable, go with the flow, and concentrate on our strengths rather than try to cover all flanks in the erosion battle; the pro nourishment folks feel equally as strong that if we don’t stand up and fight to put sand on the beach now or do something besides retreat, we will be driven into the sea…bye bye Outer Banks, no revenue, no life here for our kids and grandkids. The emotional decision is made on both sides and then both sides back up the position with facts and points that support the chosen view and become hardened in their positions. So….

    To answer your other points first—if I have underestimated the loss to the tax base in 5 years, then let’s put hard numbers on it. We have bigger topics to debate than numbers on which we can both agree if we have more information. I don’t have the resources to do the research and my wife and babies are not happy with my time consuming beach-nourishment-internet-addiction as it is.

    I also agree that it is reasonable to run a present value calculation on the lost income in years following. This will need to be matched with a reasonable projected maintenance cost over 50 or 100 years. It would be essential to segment this out into different areas based on historical erosion rates. The areas with 5+ feet per year where I doubt that the current proposal will stop erosion should definitely be judged, analyzed, and taxed differently than the areas with annual erosion rates of 3 feet or less. The bottom line on this question is that these too are numbers that can be calculated using assumptions that are reasonable and agreed upon by most parties that we don’t have now. Still, my wife will not let me devote the time to calculate this one either given my present situation as real estate agent in a difficult market with 2 small kids and last year’s tax returns still on the to-do list. Your help devoting the manpower to generate this figure accurately will be appreciated.

    To truly build a community for the next generation, we have to focus on education and arts and build the infrastructure to ensure that these are at least equal if not greater economic engines than our current one-horse-rental-home-economy. With multiple thriving educational and artistic centers which are very compatible with our tourism, the current revenue streams based almost exclusively on tourism can be far exceeded. The potential to become the center of wind energy production and research is also at our fingertips. Infrastructure for educational and arts institutions positioned at high elevation sites serves two purposes—it will be safe from erosion, and will not compete for land with rental homes/hotels as we make the transition. There is no reason that we cannot be the future center of the world for studies focusing on the arts, coastal sciences, clean energy, tourism or any other worthy human endeavor.

    Check out the map shown in figure 21 on page 42 where Stan Riggs offers an educated and researched proposal of where we will be with a 2 foot sea level rise http://core.ecu.edu/geology/riggs/Mallinson%20et%20al.%20inlet%20white%20paper%20with%20figures.pdf We will have the land to do accomplish this vision and keep our tourism industry if we plan correctly now and use our tax dollars and political will wisely. (cont.)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stan is way ahead of me in many ways and has outlined a similar vision for the future briefly outline focused on tourism: http://core.ecu.edu/geology/riggs/Coasts%20in%20Crisis%20Booklet%20for%20web.pdf

    I prefer to expand on this vision and diversify our economy, but either way retreat in some areas is going to happen. Let’s make the best of it, plan and spend wisely, and we can have a future here that is better than we can now imagine for generations to come if we better understand and accept the realities of barrier island life and the challenges we face.

    The biggest challenge that the erosion problem poses is not erosion itself, but the human response to the changes that will occur.

    Thank you for posting, considering all points, and engaging in this dialog.

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